Mitigation Scenarios

In order to integrate the results of the projections made by the Mining and Energy Planning Unit - UPME for the energy sector in the module examples calculator, UPME BASE SCENARIO built based on the results it presented the projections made by the entity under the expansion plan reference: generation - transmission 2014 - 2028 and the National Energy Plan Colombia: Energy 2050 ideology.

Some assumptions of the calculator were prepared based on information generated by the UPME, in case of supply in electricity generation data expansion plan reference generation, transmission 2014 took - 2028, and updated scenarios supply and demand for oil in Colombia and from the demand side, the results of the projections made under the National Energy Plan Colombia included: energy ideas 2050 for the industrial, transportation and residential sectors.

2014 transmission for the baseline scenario simulation UPME in the calculator, in some scenarios generation expansion plan generation were selected reference 2028. For the production of fossil fuels calculator levels most agreed were selected the description of the UPME scenarios. In turn, the demand for a comparison of the projected sector on the stage of the UPME, with the results obtained for the different levels of ambition of the energy demand sector calculator made.

The purpose of this comparison was to determine the level of the calculator which corresponds roughly the scenario presented by the UPME, therefore, these scenarios do not reflect the position of this entity with respect to the implementation of the measures under assessment (level ambition) in the calculator, but correspond to the energy supply and demand closer to UPME scenario projected considered.

For the construction of the baseline scenario of the UPME the basis is the consumption of the years 2010 to 2012 the National Energy Balance (BEN), annual economic growth of 4.6% from 2014-2030 and 3.5% 2031-2050, population projection DANE 2020 and steady growth rate through 2050, as well as other assumptions about growth in consumption of different energy, structure and energy efficiency applications.

• Electricity generation: one considers the stage 14 of the Reference Expansion Plan generation - transmission from 2014 to 2028, assuming that the power values ​​remain stable until 2050 without considering the limitations of the transmission network.
• Fossil fuels: LEVEL 2 is considered the capture and use of methane in mining operations and hydrocarbon production PATH settings A - Shortage, improved level 1 to level 2 recovery and energy efficiency.
• Industrial Sector: PATH TO-UPME and level 1 of energy efficiency.
• Residential Sector: all components at level 1. The average annual difference between the baseline scenario and CCC2050 UPME selection is 5% for urban residential. For rural residential level 1 corresponds to the baseline scenario UPME.
• Transport Sector: all components in Level 1. The average annual difference between the baseline scenario and CCC2050 selection UPME is 15%.

It is important to note that the sectors of waste, commercial-service buildings, agriculture, planted and natural forests were not included in this scenario - CCC2050 therefore remain at level 1 for all other components.
 

In order to integrate the results of the projections made by the Mining and Energy Planning Unit - UPME for the energy sector in the module Examples calculator SCENARIO ENERGY EFFICIENCY UPME built based on the results presented the projections made by the entity under the expansion plan reference: generation - transmission 2014 - 2028 and the National Energy Plan Colombia: Energy 2050 ideology.

Some assumptions of the calculator were prepared based on information generated by the UPME, in case of supply in electricity generation data expansion plan reference generation, transmission 2014 took - 2028, and updated scenarios supply and demand for oil in Colombia and from the demand side, the results of the projections made under the National Energy Plan Colombia included: energy ideas 2050 for the industrial, transportation and residential sectors.

2014 transmission for the simulation stage as ENERGY EFFICIENCY UPME in the calculator, in some scenarios generation expansion plan generation were selected reference 2028. For the production of fossil fuels calculator levels were selected to more They matched the description of the UPME scenarios. In turn, the demand for a comparison of the projected sector on the stage of the UPME, with the results obtained for the different levels of ambition of the energy demand sector calculator made.

The purpose of this comparison was to determine the level of the calculator which corresponds roughly the scenario presented by the UPME, therefore, this scenario does not reflect the position of this entity with respect to the implementation of the measures under assessment (level ambition) in the calculator, but correspond to the energy supply and demand closer to the projected scenario considered.

This scenario assumes increasing efficiency goals in agricultural and industrial processes (25% to 30% in 2030 and 2050), and cooking processes and water heating in the residential sector. In transport, penetration of electric vehicles, LNG and LPG as energy.

• Electricity generation: 16.1 stage expansion plan reference is simulated generation - transmission from 2014 to 2028, replacing 474MW by 1200MW in wind energy. Additionally, it is assumed that the power values ​​remain stable until 2050 without considering the limitations of the transmission network.
• Fossil fuels: LEVEL 2 is considered the capture and use of methane in mining operations and hydrocarbon production PATH settings A - Shortage, improved level 1 to level 3 recovery and energy efficiency.
• Industrial Sector: PATH C -1% and Tier 4 energy efficiency. The difference between the average annual UPME scenario and the selection is 4%.
• Residential Sector: all components at level 2. The difference between the average annual UPME CCC2050 selection stage and is 6%.
• Sector Transport: the combination of level that is closest to the stage UPME Management component is demand for passenger LEVEL 2, Energy efficiency and use of clean technologies passenger transport: LEVEL 3, freight demand management LEVEL 1, energy efficiency and use of clean technologies freight LEVEL 3. The difference between the average annual UPME scenario and CCC2050 selection is 12%.

It is important to note that the sectors of waste, commercial-service buildings, agriculture, planted and natural forests were not included in this scenario - CCC2050 therefore remain at level 1 for all other components.

In order to integrate the results of the projections made by the Unit of Mining and Energy Planning - UPME for the energy sector in the module Examples of the calculator the WORLD ELECTRIC STAGE UPME is presented constructed based on the results the projections made by the entity under the expansion plan reference: generation - transmission 2014 - 2028 and the National Energy Plan Colombia: Energy 2050 ideology.

Some assumptions of the calculator were prepared based on information generated by the UPME, in case of supply in electricity generation data expansion plan reference generation, transmission 2014 took - 2028, and updated scenarios supply and demand for oil in Colombia and from the demand side, the results of the projections made under the National Energy Plan Colombia included: energy ideas 2050 for the industrial, transportation and residential sectors.

2014 transmission for the simulation according to the World Stage ELECTRIC UPME in the calculator, in some scenarios generation expansion plan generation were selected reference 2028. For the production of fossil fuels calculator levels were selected to more They matched the description of the UPME scenarios. In turn, the demand for a comparison of the projected sector on the stage of the UPME, with the results obtained for the different levels of ambition of the energy demand sector calculator made.

The purpose of this comparison was to determine the level of the calculator which corresponds roughly the scenario presented by the UPME, therefore, these scenarios do not reflect the position of this entity with respect to the implementation of the measures under assessment (level ambition) in the calculator, but correspond to the energy supply and demand closer to the projected scenario considered.

This scenario assumes that the predominant energy is electricity. It replaced in the uses and sectors as possible with the ultimate ambition (Transportation, ACPM and Industry, direct heating, motive power and the residential and services sectors). All energy derived from fossil fuels for transport is obtained electricity.

• Electricity generation: all components except nuclear energy at level 4. It is the largest effort for the generation of electricity is required.
• Fossil fuels: LEVEL 2 is considered the capture and use of methane in mining operations and hydrocarbon production settings PATH B - Base, improved level 2 to level 4 recovery and energy efficiency.
• Industrial Sector: PATH C -1% and Tier 4 energy efficiency. The difference between the average annual UPME scenario and the selection is 4%.
• Residential Sector: all components at level 2. The difference between the average annual UPME CCC2050 selection stage and is 6%.
• Residential Sector: all components at level 4. The difference between the average annual UPME CCC2050 selection stage and is 4%.
• Transport Sector: all components at level 4. The difference between the average annual UPME scenario and CCC2050 selection is 13%.

It is important to note that the sectors of waste, commercial-service buildings, agriculture, planted and natural forests were not included in this scenario - CCC2050 therefore remain at level 1 for all other components.